As families gather to celebrate Thanksgiving Day, many will travel by car, making it one of the busiest traffic periods of the year. But what exactly does this increase in travel mean for road safety?
Data from the National Safety Council (NSC) based on the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) sheds light on the risks associated with Thanksgiving travel. We will look at data published in 2023 to somehow manage statistical expectations for 2024.
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Historical Comparison of Thanksgiving Traffic Fatalities
To gauge the dangers of Thanksgiving day holiday travel, it’s essential to compare it against other non-holiday periods.
The NSC analysis covers from 6 p.m. Wednesday to 11:59 p.m. Sunday during both the Thanksgiving weekend and the weeks immediately before and after. Historically, from 1995 to 2020, traffic fatalities during the Thanksgiving period have averaged slightly lower than those in similar non-holiday periods (462 versus 475 deaths).
However, this small difference is not statistically significant, indicating that Thanksgiving car accidents and motor-vehicle travel in general are almost as risky as other times.
Thanksgiving Day Versus Other Holidays
When comparing different holiday periods, the NSC utilizes a daily average fatality rate to account for varying holiday lengths. Notably, summer holidays often report higher fatality rates per day compared to winter holidays.
In 2021, Thanksgiving recorded the second lowest daily fatality rate among major holidays. This suggests that while Thanksgiving travel is significant, it is relatively safer when compared to more perilous times like New Year’s Eve, the Fourth of July, or Memorial Day.
Auto Accidents on Thanksgiving Day: Traffic and Travel Patterns
A key factor often overlooked is the volume of travel during holidays. Although there is no comprehensive data system that tracks vehicle miles traveled by day, it is reasonable to assume increased travel during holidays.
Interestingly, with the assumption of higher travel volumes during Thanksgiving but fewer deaths than comparable non-holiday weekends, the implied risk of fatality in a car crash might seem lower during the Thanksgiving holiday.
Forecasting Thanksgiving Car Accidents and Traffic Fatalities
Using historical data, the NSC estimates traffic deaths during holiday periods. For November 2023, a time series forecasting model predicts a total of 3,879 traffic fatalities. We can assume the same for 2024.
Applying historical proportions, where auto accidents on Thanksgiving Day have typically accounted for about 13.1% of November’s total, we can expect approximately 507 fatalities over the Thanksgiving holiday this year.
Be Safe on the Roads This Thanksgiving. Injured in an Accident? Call RTM Law Firm.
While the Thanksgiving holiday might not be the deadliest on record, it still poses significant risks due to high traffic volumes. Travelers are urged to exercise caution, plan routes in advance, and avoid risky behaviors like speeding or driving under the influence.
If you or a loved one is involved in Thanksgiving car accidents, know that help is available. At RTM Law Firm in California, our team of dedicated auto accident and injury lawyers are prepared to help victims who have suffered due to accidents that were not their fault.
For a consultation or to discuss the details of your case, please contact RTM Law Firm. Remember, your safety and legal rights are paramount, and we are here to support you through every step of the recovery process. No fees until we win.
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Do you need compassionate support and effective representation?
No fees until we win. Available 24/7.
